Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The mean number of everyday killings each month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh official figures. But, public safety experts have warned that murder data could fail to indicate enhanced national safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen over these past months is extremely notable,” the President stated, adding that last month the least figure of murders were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly military operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and there is specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true given the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and think: ‘Well then, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it could obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to build a picture of security. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.