Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
