Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.