It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
